Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 20.028900 22.824311 25.838148 29.325198 33.244740 37.510356 42.500294
2024-12-22 15.987714 19.788053 24.200170 29.685702 36.306753 44.023416 53.680980
2024-12-29 13.776150 17.977491 23.090732 29.743417 38.139212 48.349033 61.668853
2025-01-05 12.495159 17.080860 22.896694 30.767955 41.090930 54.109869 71.706562
2025-01-12 11.007038 15.682151 21.832295 30.450982 42.142058 57.362498 78.577176
2025-01-19 9.363355 13.874866 20.018845 28.915905 41.372076 58.076052 82.032373
2025-01-26 8.718520 13.369828 19.897797 29.623116 43.614710 62.860468 91.143245
2025-02-02 8.183175 12.956767 19.846700 30.384913 45.931780 67.822040 100.717430
2025-02-09 7.462393 12.191377 19.206175 30.213434 46.852344 70.814030 107.603906
2025-02-16 6.769993 11.399974 18.451328 29.791110 47.336315 73.151433 113.603874
2025-02-23 6.295404 10.904967 18.099873 29.937631 48.652230 76.738722 121.584158
2025-03-02 5.904194 10.507204 17.861961 30.227668 50.179335 80.686694 130.264558
2025-03-09 5.501838 10.066195 17.535937 30.375552 51.525504 84.482918 139.006232
2025-03-16 5.064827 9.527567 17.007981 30.152208 52.254048 87.346134 146.432533
2025-03-23 4.761780 9.193121 16.788645 30.411199 53.758314 91.474897 156.019603
2025-03-30 4.606692 9.109597 16.988278 31.387023 56.499309 97.714217 169.297051
2025-04-06 4.259695 8.641462 16.477774 31.087545 57.042674 100.356965 176.765838
2025-04-13 3.756256 7.833072 15.297631 29.515119 55.276780 99.038964 177.525992
2025-04-20 3.623347 7.728159 15.389706 30.238511 57.578343 104.693942 190.331644
2025-04-27 3.505684 7.642659 15.509270 31.014066 60.005753 110.663664 203.928128
2025-05-04 3.275850 7.310599 15.136568 30.839598 60.686600 113.607684 212.367137
2025-05-11 3.034404 6.933351 14.648374 30.409054 60.860369 115.647223 219.276986
2025-05-18 2.877569 6.720773 14.467655 30.558427 62.121183 119.676615 229.901411